Lula wins Brazil's run-off, and the loser leaves the country
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term by 4.4 million votes. Two days later Flávio Bolsonaro, ordered to hand in his passports, crossed into Argentina and flew to Miami, calling himself Brazil's true president-elect for about an hour.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the left-wing Workers' Party, won Brazil's presidential run-off on Sunday 25th October, beating Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing Liberal Party, the eldest son of the former president Jair Bolsonaro, by nearly 4.4 million votes.1 By the electoral court's count, Lula took 51.8% of valid votes to Bolsonaro's 48.2%, on a turnout of almost 81%.2
Bolsonaro had led the first round three weeks earlier, by 47% to 45%. It is the first time since the end of Brazil's military dictatorship in 1985 that the runner-up in the first round has gone on to win.1 Lula, who is 81, will begin his fourth term on 5th January 2027.1 "This election was a defeat for denialism, a defeat for lies," he told supporters on São Paulo's Avenida Paulista that night.3
Two extra hours
About three minutes before the polls closed, a Supreme Court justice, Cristiano Zanin, kept them open for another two hours. Both campaigns had asked for it: Lula's side because of bus problems in São Paulo and Salvador, Bolsonaro's because of heavy rain in the south.1 Fewer than 35,000 votes, about 0.03% of the total, were cast in the extra time, according to Time.4
Bolsonaro said that because of the extension it was "impossible to recognise the election result". "I wasn't the one who lost," he said. "The system won."4 His own party recognised Lula's victory, as did the electoral court and international observers.5
A border, a jet and a letter
On Monday a different Supreme Court justice, Alexandre de Moraes, ordered Bolsonaro to surrender his passports within 24 hours and barred him from leaving the country, in a money-laundering investigation. The order cited a risk that he would flee. Bolsonaro, who denies wrongdoing, said in a video that he would hand them over and had "never thought about leaving the country".4
He did not hand them over. On Tuesday the Federal Police cancelled his ordinary and diplomatic passports.6 At 22:50 that night, Argentina's migration agency later said, he crossed the bridge from Foz do Iguaçu to Puerto Iguazú with his wife and two daughters, "with valid travel documents". Argentina's government had said earlier the same day that it had no record of his entry.7 A Brazilian diplomat told the Associated Press he had travelled on an Italian passport; he has had Italian nationality since 2023.4
A private Gulfstream jet operated by an Argentine company took the family overnight, via Guayaquil in Ecuador,7 to Miami, where it landed on Wednesday morning.8 US officials said the State Department would grant them visas.4 "This act of leaving Brazil is shameful," Lula said.8
That afternoon Bolsonaro released a letter calling himself "o verdadeiro presidente eleito do Brasil", "the true president-elect of Brazil". It alleged fraud, without evidence, thanked Argentina's president, Javier Milei, and Donald Trump, and carried an obsolete coat of arms reading "Estados Unidos do Brazil". About an hour later it was replaced by a version that called him "the leader".9 A family ally, Paulo Figueiredo, blamed ChatGPT: "When generating the document, AI ended up including an earlier version of the text."5
Trump said: "I think the election was a disgrace in Brazil," and would not say whether he recognised Lula's victory.5 He is an ally of the Bolsonaros: in July 2025 he announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, calling Jair Bolsonaro's trial "a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY".10
The family business
Four years ago Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by an even narrower margin, 50.9% to 49.1%.11 Bolsonaro did not concede, and a week after Lula took office, on 8th January 2023, thousands of his supporters stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential palace. In September 2025 the Supreme Court convicted Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a coup to stay in power and sentenced him to 27 years and three months; he is now under house arrest on health grounds.12 Flávio, a senator, stood in his place.
Where it stands
Lula's victory is settled. What is not is how he governs with a hostile Congress and a Supreme Court that is itself a political issue. In April the Senate rejected his nominee for the court, by 42 votes to 34, the first such rejection in more than a century,13 and Moraes's order against Flávio Bolsonaro has given the defeated candidate the reason he cites for leaving. No arrest warrant or extradition request has been reported, and he remains in Miami, saying he is a victim of political persecution.
On Saturday 31st October the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said: "We didn't facilitate anything," and that the president had decided to let Bolsonaro enter the country. Trump said: "I think he got treated very shabbily, very shabbily, so he can stay here as long as he wants." Reuters reported that he had been admitted under humanitarian parole, a status that usually lasts a year.14