The war stopped. What comes next?

Nearly a year after the October 2025 ceasefire, Gaza has moved into a different phase. But the end of the large-scale campaign has not meant an end to violence: Israeli strikes and civilian deaths continue. The political settlement and physical recovery remain incomplete.¹²

The immediate challenge is visible in the territory itself.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, or UNCTAD, put Gaza's recovery and reconstruction needs at $71.5 billion on 24 September. This is distinct from its cited estimate of $35.2 billion in physical infrastructure damage. The joint UN, European Union and World Bank assessment published in April put recovery needs at $71.4 billion over the following decade.³⁴

That assessment estimated 371,888 housing units damaged or destroyed, covering damage through October 2025. These are individual housing units, rather than a count of buildings. On 24 September, WHO said 19 of Gaza's 36 hospitals were partially functioning and none fully functioning; approximately 1.7 million people remained displaced.⁵⁶

The human cost extends beyond the infrastructure. Gaza's Ministry of Health reported 73,669 Palestinian deaths since 7 October 2023, as of 9 September 2026, according to a published snapshot from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or OCHA. OCHA attributes this reported toll to the ministry; it is not presented as a total independently verified by the UN.⁵

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The ceasefire changed the war. It did not resolve Gaza.

The ceasefire took effect on 10 October 2025. The remaining living hostages were returned on 13 October; the body of the final deceased hostage was recovered and returned to Israel on 26 January 2026. Israel also released Palestinian prisoners and detainees under the agreement. These milestones are recorded in the Board of Peace's implementation report submitted to the Security Council.⁷

They did not settle what would happen to Gaza afterwards.

The framework links the disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups, Israeli withdrawal, transitional security arrangements, Palestinian civil government and reconstruction. On 24 September, the international alliance backing a two-state solution again called for verified disarmament and full Israeli withdrawal, support for an international stabilisation force and a vetted Palestinian police service.⁸

That transition remains unfinished. The Office of the United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, or UNSCO, reported this week that implementation of the Security Council-endorsed plan was incomplete and recovery remained below the scale required.²

Who governs Gaza?

Security and governance remain closely connected. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 2 September that Israel's objective was to disarm Hamas and ensure Gaza could no longer threaten Israel. He said Israeli forces would remain on their current line. The sequencing of disarmament and withdrawal remains disputed.⁹

When Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly on 24 September, many delegations walked out in protest as he took the podium. He began: “If there are any other moral cowards who haven't yet left this hall, please do so now.”¹⁰¹¹

The international framework envisages a transition towards a single Palestinian government, supported by outside security arrangements. Those proposals are distinct from an agreed and fully implemented transfer of authority.⁸

Any administration would inherit damaged infrastructure, a weakened healthcare system and widespread displacement. Recovery also requires practical access: UNSCO identifies predictable entry of equipment and expertise, restoration of electricity, water and health services, and support for Palestinian institutions as priorities.²

Gaza cannot be separated from the West Bank

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told the UN General Assembly on 24 September that the transition should reunite Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, under Palestinian institutions. He called for Palestinian sovereignty alongside security and peace for Israelis.¹²

UN Secretary-General António Guterres likewise called this week for the territories to be integrated under one Palestinian government and for Israel and Palestine to live alongside each other in peace and security.¹³

Developments on the ground continue to complicate that objective. UNSCO reports that settlement expansion, settler violence, displacement and movement restrictions in the occupied West Bank are undermining stability and prospects for a viable Palestinian state.²

These diplomatic positions leave difficult questions of implementation: who exercises authority in Gaza, how Hamas and other armed groups disarm, when Israel withdraws, and how security for Israelis and Palestinian self-determination are secured.

The ceasefire changed the conflict. Whether it leads to a durable settlement remains unresolved.

Context

How did Israel and Palestine get here?

The background extends through the British Mandate and Balfour Declaration, competing national movements, Israel's creation and the Palestinian Nakba in 1948, the 1967 war and occupation, the PLO, Oslo, settlements, Hamas, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, the blockade, the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023, the Gaza war and the 2025 ceasefire.