Edition 1 · The Limits of Power
A new route to peace — but will Russia take it?
Washington is trying to restart diplomacy with three narrower proposals. Ukraine says it is ready. Russia says the conditions for renewed peace talks are not yet in place.
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Nearly five years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Washington is trying to restart diplomacy through limited steps rather than an attempt to settle the entire war at once.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says the US proposals cover an energy ceasefire, Black Sea grain shipping and renewed three-way talks.1
Ukraine says it is ready to proceed. Russia has not publicly agreed to the proposals.2
Start with energy
An energy ceasefire would be reciprocal: Russia would stop attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and Ukraine would stop attacking Russian energy infrastructure.
Russia has repeatedly struck Ukraine's power grid; Ukraine has been attacking Russian refineries. President Donald Trump has urged Kyiv to halt refinery strikes, citing pressure on diesel supplies and prices. Zelensky says Ukraine could stop if Russia ends its own energy attacks.3
For Ukrainian civilians, the approaching winter makes protecting electricity and heating particularly urgent. Ukraine has been seeking a halt to attacks on power and heating facilities before the cold sets in.2
There is no publicly confirmed reciprocal ceasefire in force. On 25 September, Russia's Rostov governor said a drone attack had forced the Novoshakhtinsk refinery to suspend operations temporarily.4
The Black Sea
The second proposal concerns the route linking Ukrainian grain exports with international food markets.
In a joint statement on 23 September, Ukraine, the EU and other governments called for an arrangement protecting commercial shipping and critical infrastructure in the Black Sea. They warned that attacks threatening Ukrainian grain exports were also endangering global food security.5
Zelensky told a gathering at the UN that Ukraine was ready for a maritime truce if Russia took steps towards de-escalation too. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said both countries had expressed interest in a limited ceasefire covering grain and energy. That interest had not produced public Kremlin backing for the proposals.2
A maritime arrangement would have a limited, testable purpose: protecting shipping. It would not end the fighting on land.
Then come the talks
The third proposal would bring the United States, Ukraine and Russia back into negotiations. Zelensky has said he is willing to meet Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.6
The Kremlin's public position remains more guarded. Speaking to reporters on 23 September, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were:
“no prerequisites for moving onto a peaceful negotiating track”
He also said Russia remained open to peace talks. Those statements do not amount to agreement on a new trilateral meeting.6
The war hasn't paused for diplomacy
Attacks continued during the diplomatic effort. On 22 September, Ukrainian officials reported deaths from Russian strikes in Dnipro and Sumy, while Zelensky reported Ukrainian strikes on two Russian refineries.3
The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine recorded 2,222 civilians killed and 13,058 injured from January to August 2026. The combined number killed and injured was 55% higher than in the same period of 2025.
In August alone, it verified at least 372 civilians killed and 2,349 injured. Long-range missiles and drones accounted for 47% of that month's civilian casualties, with most casualties from those weapons occurring in urban centres far from the front line. These are verified figures; the UN says it cannot independently confirm many reported casualties in occupied territory.7
What would the proposals actually achieve?
ENERGY Stop reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure.
BLACK SEA Protect grain exports and commercial shipping.
TALKS Resume direct negotiations between the three countries.
These are limited objectives. They do not settle control of occupied territory, the future of Crimea or Ukraine's future security arrangements. A meeting would provide a forum for negotiation; it would not itself be a peace settlement.
Context
Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
The background extends beyond February 2022: the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine's independence, NATO enlargement, the Orange Revolution, Euromaidan, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the war in Donbas and the Minsk agreements. These are the milestones a fuller account needs to explain.