Attacks on Hormuz shipping hit a wartime high as a container ship sinks
A Singapore-flagged container ship went down after the busiest week of reported attacks since the war began. Iran says a mine sank it; the US says an Iranian projectile did.
Two weeks ago, Hindsight reported that crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had largely adapted to the war, even as diesel stayed scarce. This week that recovery went into reverse.
Ships reported more attacks around the strait than at any point since the US–Iran war began on 28th February. A container ship sank, Iran and the United States disputed what sank it, and crude oil rose towards $110 a barrel.
A record week of reported attacks
Twelve vessels were attacked between 5th and 11th October, the largest weekly number reported to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency, or UKMTO, since the war began, according to BBC Verify's analysis of the agency's reports. Six were struck on Sunday 11th October alone, a one-day high.1 The attacks went on this week. On Sunday 18th October UKMTO said at least 10 vessels had been attacked in or near the strait since the previous Sunday; that morning a tug was struck by two unidentified projectiles, with one minor casualty. On Friday a tanker off Al Jubayl, on Saudi Arabia's Gulf coast, reported being attacked with a rocket-propelled grenade from a small boat; its crew was safe.2
The attacks have spread beyond the strait. On 11th October a drone struck the tanker Petro Dolphin off Oman, more than 250 kilometres away; two Indian seafarers are still missing, according to their union.1
Iran says it is stepping up strikes in response to the US blockade of its ports and tougher sanctions introduced last month.3 Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran was also using new tactics to keep oil prices high and to influence the US midterm elections on 3rd November. One said such vessels "would be safe nowhere, even outside the Strait of Hormuz".4
Much of the Gulf's recent oil has moved through a US-backed "shuttle": tankers sail through the strait close to Oman's coast and transfer their cargo to larger ships beyond it. Iran calls that route "unauthorised".1 The Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei called the shuttle an explicit target and claimed that Iran had been striking five or six of its vessels nightly. "You are smuggling, but the strait is under Iran's control, and we manage it," he said.5
Two sinkings, three weeks apart
Two ships were reported sunk on Wednesday 14th October. Only one of them was hit this week.
The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride was struck by an unidentified projectile while sailing through the strait on Tuesday 13th October, caught fire and sank, according to Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority. All 21 crew were evacuated, and no injuries were reported.63 Its sister ship, the GFS Giselle, was struck the next day but reached a safe anchorage with its 22 crew.6 The authority called the attacks "unprovoked, unjustifiable, and a breach of international law".7
The second ship, the bulk carrier Cape Dao, was hit on 23rd September off Oman's Musandam peninsula, as Hindsight reported at the time. One Indian sailor was killed. A seafarers' union said two torpedoes struck the ship; neither Iran nor the US claimed responsibility.8 Reuters describes the weapon as a projectile. Data from the International Maritime Organization, the UN shipping agency, showed on 14th October that the ship had since sunk; the date has not been published. By Reuters' analysis of that data, the two are the second and third vessels to sink since the war began.3
A mine, or a projectile?
Iran gave a different account. The navy of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, said a cargo ship carrying more than 2,500 containers had sunk after striking a naval mine on Wednesday morning, on what it called an illegal and dangerous route. Iran did not name the ship, and the Associated Press reported that it was unclear whether it was the GFS Pride.79
US Central Command, or CENTCOM, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, rejected the mine account. It said the GFS Pride had been struck by an IRGC projectile and sank while being towed towards shore.610 A US official said Iran had likely attacked the ship with a missile.6
Singapore did not say who fired the projectile.6 The maritime security firm Marisks said there was no independent evidence that a mine sank the vessel.4
The IRGC has made other mine claims: a supertanker on 10th October, whose video an analyst said did not appear to show a mine strike,11 and another tanker on Friday 16th October. Neither has been verified.10
Oil falls back, prices rise
Before the war, about 17 million barrels of oil a day passed through the strait. Shipments recovered to about 15 million a day at the end of September, helped by US-escorted transits, then fell to about 12.6 million on 13th October, according to preliminary data from the trade intelligence firm Kpler, cited by BBC Verify.1 Daily figures swing widely, from 2.9 million barrels on 11th October to nearly 20.8 million on 8th October.5
CENTCOM said: "The United States and regional partners control the strait as commercial vessels continue to transit despite unwarranted IRGC aggression."6
On Friday afternoon, Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading at $109.34 a barrel, up 4.1% on the week, Reuters reported. Kpler analysts said: "Intensified Iranian attacks drove Gulf crude flows sharply lower."12
Diesel prices have surged to record highs in many markets, according to Reuters. On 15th October the International Energy Agency, or IEA, agreed to release more than 20 million barrels of diesel from emergency stocks "in response to the Strait of Hormuz crisis". One analyst called it "an acceleration of existing commitments rather than genuinely new volumes".13
The cost to growth
The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, published its World Economic Outlook on 13th October. It forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2026, rising to 3.4% in 2027.14
Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's chief economist, said the Middle East war had pushed up energy and commodity prices like a global supply shock. Rerouted supplies and other adjustments had contained it; without them, growth could have been 2.5%. She warned: "some of these margins, in particular inventories and energy efficiency gains, are reaching their limits".15 Those figures are projections, not results.
Washington and Tehran are arguing over one question: whether ships can pass. The United States points to barrels moved and escorts provided; Iran points to ships struck. The competing accounts of the GFS Pride are part of that contest, and for shipowners and fuel buyers the uncertainty itself matters as much as any single sinking.
What remains unresolved
What sank the GFS Pride has not been independently established. Iran says it was a mine, while the United States and Singapore say it was a projectile.
It is not yet clear whether attacks will continue at last week's record pace, or whether the US-backed shuttle can keep crude oil moving through the strait.
The diplomacy is unchanged. Iran's foreign minister has said Tehran is reviewing the US response to its proposed seven-day plan to reopen the strait, while the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.6