Washington eases pressure on Moscow as its rift with Kyiv deepens
In one week Ukraine abandoned Trump's energy truce, lost speed on its military satellite link and watched the president waive the Russia sanctions Congress had passed.
Last week, Hindsight described a US policy pulling in two directions: arming Ukraine while easing restrictions on Russian diesel. This week the balance tipped further.
Within six days, Ukraine abandoned the energy ceasefire Donald Trump had announced, its armed forces lost speed on the American military satellite service their drones depend on, and Trump waived a sweeping Russia sanctions law he had signed only a month earlier.
Each development had its own explanation. Together they leave Kyiv's relationship with Washington at its lowest point since the Oval Office confrontation of February 2025, according to The Hill's analysis.1
The energy truce lasted days
On Sunday 11th October Trump demanded that Russia and Ukraine stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. Ukraine said it was observing the pause. Russia continued its aerial bombardment of Ukraine's power system, according to Zelenskyy.2
Early on Thursday 15th October, Ukrainian drones struck a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region, about 300 kilometres south-east of Moscow, starting a fire. Russia's Defence Ministry and the regional governor reported the fire; a senior Ukrainian official confirmed the strike.2
Zelenskyy told the Financial Times that his patience had run out: "We're done."2
The same night, Zelenskyy said, Russia launched more than 850 drones at Ukraine, affecting 15 regions. In Kirovohrad region, three people were killed in an attack that lasted more than 10 hours, according to Ukraine's emergency services.2
A slower link at the front
Ukraine's decision came after a second blow. Overnight on Wednesday 14th October, without warning, service was limited for Starshield terminals moving faster than 100 miles an hour, according to an adviser to Zelenskyy.3 Starshield is the military version of SpaceX's Starlink network, and Ukraine uses it to fly drones, including those that intercept Russian attack drones.4
Serhii Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian defence technology adviser, wrote that Ukraine had been "deprived of one of the few chances to defend itself from Shahed drones".3
Who ordered the limit is disputed.
- Elon Musk, SpaceX's chief executive, wrote: "Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately [President of the United States]."3
- Reuters reported on 15th October, citing two US officials and a Western official, that Pentagon leaders had been told from inside the White House that the service needed to be slowed. The sources did not say who made the decision. A senior US official said Trump had not personally requested it.54
- Trump told reporters: "I don't know if it was anybody, because it wasn't me, and I don't think it was Elon."6
At a news conference in Brussels on 16th October, Zelenskyy said: "Starlink was not switched off. The speed was reduced." Asked whether the speed had been fully restored, he said: "No. Is the speed being restored now? Yes."6
The episode reached Congress. A bipartisan group of senators led by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, including Republicans Thom Tillis, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and John Cornyn, asked the Pentagon's inspector general to establish whether the administration or its contractors were responsible, and whether SpaceX had acted alone. They asked for a first briefing by 1st November.7
Trump: "not a good guy for us to deal with"
On 15th October, the day Ukraine resumed its refinery strikes, Trump gave an interview to Newsmax at the White House.
"Zelenskyy is not a good guy for us to deal with," he said. "I think I find Zelenskyy to be more difficult to deal with than Putin."8
He called the refinery attacks "a disgrace", saying Ukraine was "making the world oil price higher" and that there were "plenty of other targets". On Ukraine's leadership, he said: "I think you need an election."8
Ukraine has not held a presidential election during the full-scale war because elections are suspended under martial law. On 10th October Trump had said Ukraine should replace Zelenskyy.9 Zelenskyy then offered to hold an election if Russia accepted a 60-day comprehensive ceasefire; the Kremlin rejected the proposal.10
Zelenskyy told Piers Morgan that restricting the military satellite service was "a big mistake" that "will bring a lot of human losses".3
The sanctions law, put on hold
On Friday 16th October Trump signed an executive order pausing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, saying the pause was "in the national interest".1112
The law, named after the Republican senator who died in July, was drafted with Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal and passed both chambers by large margins. It targets Russian officials, banks and the so-called shadow fleet of tankers carrying Russian oil, and directs tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest importers of Russian oil or gas. Trump had signed it in September. The order came two days before the deadline that would have brought the sanctions into effect.11
The waiver came a week after Trump announced the deal for Russian diesel, intended to lower fuel prices that NBC News reports have risen almost 70% since the Iran war began in February.12
Zelenskyy wrote that the decision was "effectively serving as a financial reward for Putin".12 Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin's special envoy, called it "an important and truly historic moment".11
Criticism in Washington crossed party lines. Senator Tillis called the waiver "beyond irresponsible", asking: "What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand?"12
Each US decision this week has a stated rationale: fuel prices, the national interest, and in the case of Starshield, a denial that anyone at the top ordered it. Seen together, they move in one direction. Pressure on Russia's energy earnings has been loosened, while Ukraine's ability to strike that same industry, and to defend itself against drones, has been constrained. Kyiv's response, resuming refinery strikes, is the action Washington had pressed it to stop.
What remains unresolved
Who ordered the Starshield slowdown, and whether full speed returns, is not yet established. The senators' request to the inspector general could answer the first question.
It is not yet clear how long the sanctions pause will last, or whether Congress will try to override or amend it.
And the energy ceasefire, announced a week ago, now exists only as an announcement. Both countries are again attacking each other's energy systems.